National Trends
Market Briefs
"Market Pulse"

Tim Sullivan is a unique blend - a “data junkie” that has a special talent for translating numbers into product designs and marketing concepts that buyers embrace.”

- Linda Baysari, PCBC

 National Trends

Each month we track key national economic and housing market indicators as part of our efforts to remain “ahead of the curve” in terms of changing conditions that could impact the real estate industry. As a service to our clients, we have created a series of ratings systems that are comprehensive in nature, yet presented in a straightforward manner. Our national analysis provides a quick and easy way to remain on top of critical housing market and economic trends. The economic and housing market indicators listed below are updated multiple times each month as new data is released.

National Economic and Housing Market Indicators
Economic Indicators
Reading
Historical Grade
(Long-Term)
Business Cycle Rating
(Middle Term)
Recent Change
(Short-Term)
Data Period
Data Source
GDP Growth
-0.3%
♦
♦
▼
3Q2008
Non-Farm Employment Growth
-0.9%
♦
♦
▼
Oct 2008
Unemployment Rate
6.5%
♦♦
♦
▲
Oct 2008
Inflation (Core Consumer Price Index)
2.2%
♦♦♦♦
♦♦♦
▼
Oct 2008
Per Capita Personal Income Growth
2.9%
♦
♦♦
▼
Sept 2008
Retail Sales (Excl. Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers)
-2.7%
♦♦
♦♦
▼
Oct 2008
Purchasing Managers' Index
38.9%
♦
♦
▼
Oct 2008
Consumer Confidence
38.0
♦
♦
▼
Oct 2008
Leading Economic Indicator Index (6 mo chg)
-2.4%
♦
♦
▼
Oct 2008
State of the Economy Summary:
♦
♦
 
             
Mortgage Market Indicators
Reading
Historical Rating
(Long-Term)
Business Cycle Rating
(Middle Term)
Recent Change
(Short-Term)
Data Period
Data Source
Mortgage Rate (30-Year Fixed)

6.2%
♦♦♦♦♦
♦♦♦
▲
Oct 2008
Mortgage Rate (1-Year Adjustable)
5.2%
♦♦♦♦
♦♦
▲
Oct 2008
Fixed vs. Adjustable Rate Spread
0.9%
♦
♦♦
▲
Oct 2008
Sullivan Group
Fixed vs. 10-Year Treasury Spread
2.4%
♦♦♦♦♦
♦♦♦♦♦
▲
Oct 2008
Sullivan Group
Percentage of ARM Loans
5.0%
♦♦♦♦♦
♦♦♦♦♦
▼
Sept 2008
Purchase Mortgage Applications
248.5
♦♦♦
♦
▼
Nov 2008
Purchase Mortgage Applications Growth
-38.4%
♦
♦
▼
Nov 2008
State of the Mortgage Market Summary:
♦♦♦
♦♦
 
 
 
New Construction Indicators
Reading
Historical Rating
(Long-Term)
Business Cycle Rating
(Middle Term)
Recent Change
(Short-Term)
Data Period
Data Source
Housing Starts (SA Annual Rate)
791,000
♦
♦
▼
Oct 2008
Housing Starts Growth
-38.0%
♦
♦
▼
Oct 2008
Single-Family Permits (SA Annual Rate)
460,000
♦
♦
▼
Oct 2008
Single-Family Permits Growth
-43.3%
♦
♦
▼
Oct 2008
Multifamily Permits (SA Annual Rate)
248,000
♦
♦
▼
Oct 2008
Multifamily Permits Growth
-33.2%
♦
♦
▲
Oct 2008
State of New Construction Summary:
♦
♦
 
 
 
New Home Sales Indicators
Reading
Historical Rating
(Long-Term)
Business Cycle Rating
(Middle Term)
Recent Change
(Short-Term)
Data Period
Data Source
New Home Sales (SA Annual Rate)
464,000
♦
♦
▲
Sept 2008
New Home Sales Growth
-33.1%
♦
♦
▲
Sept 2008
Annual New Home Price Appreciation
-9.1%
♦
♦
▼
Sept 2008
Months Supply of Unsold Homes
10.4
♦
♦♦♦♦
▼
Sept 2008
NAHB Housing Market Index
9
♦
♦
▼
Nov 2008
State of New Home Sales Summary:
♦
♦
 
 
 
Existing Home Sales Indicators
Reading
Historical Rating
(Long-Term)
Business Cycle Rating
(Middle Term)
Recent Change
(Short-Term)
Data Period
Data Source
SF Home Sales (SA Annual Rate)
4,620,000
♦♦♦♦♦
♦
▲
Sept 2008
SF Home Sales Growth
3.8%
♦♦♦
♦♦♦
▲
Sept 2008
MF Home Sales (SA Annual Rate)
560,000
♦
♦
▬
Sept 2008
MF Home Sales Growth
-15.7%
♦
♦
▲
Sept 2008
Annual SF Home Price Appreciation
-8.6%
♦
♦
▼
Sept 2008
Annual MF Home Price Appreciation
-10.2%
♦
♦
▼
Sept 2008
Months Supply of Unsold SF Homes
9.4
♦
♦
▼
Sept 2008
State of Existing Home Sales Summary:
♦
♦
 
             
 
Historical Rating Explanation:  Our historical rating system compares the current indicator reading to all available historical data (size of data series varies by indicator). The current indicator reading is assigned a "diamond" rating based upon a statistical assessment of the historical data. The historical rating system is a long-term gauge of economic and housing market performance.
 
Business Cycle Rating Explanation:  Our business cycle rating system compares the current indicator reading to data from the current business cycle. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the current business cycle began in December 2001. The business cycle rating system should be used to measure the maturity of the current business cycle and is a middle-term gauge of economic and housing market performance.
 
Diamonds Explanation:  Each indicator is assigned a "diamond" rating based upon the current indicator reading.  The rating is statistically assigned based upon the indicators current reading versus the total history of the indicator or the business cycle history of the indicator. The ratings are assigned based upon the following statistical measures:
 
♦♦♦♦♦ -
Current indicator reading is in the 80% to 100% percentile ranking
♦♦♦♦ - 
Current indicator reading is in the 60% to 80% percentile ranking
♦♦♦ -
Current indicator reading is in the 40% to 60% percentile ranking
♦♦ -
Current indicator reading is in the 20% to 40% percentile ranking
♦ -
Current indicator reading is in the 0% to 20% percentile ranking
 
 
Recent Change Explanation:  The recent change indicator simply reflects the change from the prior period (week, month, or quarter) to the current period.
 
Direction Arrows Explanation: The recent change direction rating system uses a series of arrows to illustrate the current trend direction. The ratings are assigned using the following the measures:
 
▲ - The indicator rose and a higher reading is positive
▼ - The indicator fell and a lower reading is positive
▬ - The indicator did not change
▲ - The indicator rose and a higher reading is negative
▼ - The indicator fell and a lower reading is negative